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虚拟水是揭示商品和服务中水资源隐性流动的重要视角，为分析水资源配置及区域水安全提供了新维度。研究发现，我国虚拟水流动格局已发生根本性转变：在国际层面，我国已由虚拟水净出口国转为净进口国；在国内层面，呈现明显的“北水南调”特征，北方通过输送高耗水农产品的形式，向南方年均输送虚拟水约426亿m3。这些变化显示，虚拟水流动已深刻影响我国水资源配置、产业布局和水安全格局。尽管虚拟水战略在缓解局部水资源压力、识别产业布局矛盾和促进区域协同治理方面具有积极价值，但其应用受到粮食安全、经济发展阶段、核算数据基础及水资源多功能属性等多重约束。分析认为，虚拟水战略不应被视为实体水管理的替代方案，而应科学定位为服务于水资源优化配置与风险识别的补充性治理工具。当前，我国在虚拟水治理中仍面临系统性认识不足、战略价值整合不充分、隐性风险识别不到位和跨区域协调机制不健全等挑战，建议在粮食安全和节水优先的基础上，以产业升级为支撑，推进虚拟水核算、规划评估和供应链风险预警等制度建设，促进虚拟水管理与实体水管理协同实施。
Abstract：Virtual water provides an important perspective for revealing the embedded water flows in goods and services, offering a new dimension for analyzing water resources allocation and regional water security. This study fnds that China's virtual water flow patterns have undergone a fundamental transformation. At the international level, China has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer of virtual water. Domestically, a pronounced “north-to-south virtual water transfer” pattern has emerged, with northern regions exporting an annual average of approximately 42.6 billion m3 of virtual water to the south through the transfer of waterintensive agricultural products. These changes indicate that virtual water has profoundly influenced China's water resources allocation, industrial layout, and water security pattern. Although the virtual water strategy can help alleviate local water stress, identify conflicts between industrial layout and water resource carrying capacity, and promote regional collaborative governance, its application is subject to multiple constraints, including food security, the stage of economic development, data accounting, and the multifunctional attributes of water resources. The analysis indicates that the virtual water strategy should not be viewed as a substitute for physical water management; rather, it should be scientifcally positioned as a supplementary governance tool for optimizing water resources allocation and identifying water-related risks. Currently, China's virtual water governance still faces challenges, including insuffcient systemic understanding, inadequate integration of its strategic value, ineffective identifcation of hidden risks, and underdeveloped cross-regional coordination mechanisms. It is recommended that, on the basis of prioritizing food security and water conservation, institutional development in areas such as virtual water accounting, planning and assessment, and supply chain risk early warning should be advanced, supported by industrial upgrading, thereby promoting the coordinated implementation of virtual water and physical water management.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]何凡,姜珊,何国华,等.我国虚拟水战略的价值审视、科学定位与实施建议[J].中国水利,2026,No.1041(15):36-43.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金重大项目（52394231）; 中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费项目（WR110145B0072025）
2026-08-17
2026-08-17
2026-08-17