中国水利

为使水资源需求预测更贴合新时代经济社会发展模式与区域实际用水变化趋势,本文以马斯洛递进需求层次理论为参考依据,以天津市为研究区域,结合天津市城市发展功能定位,预测2025年、2035年供水潜力和经济社会需水,研判未来缺水形势。结果表明,天津市规划2025年、2035年均处于相对缺水状态,应在充分利用当地水资源并深度挖掘节水潜力的情况下,加大南水北调中线和引滦入津工程的调水力度,积极争取南水北调东线二期工程分水指标。

Aiming at the higher level of coordination between water demand forecast and actual water consumption as well as economic and social development mode, a judgment on the future water shortage situation is made with Maslow's progressive demand hierarchy theory as a reference in this paper. Tianjin as a pilot area, based on the functional orientation of future urban development, the water supply potential and economic and social water demand in 2025 and 2035 is analyzed, and the future water shortage situation is judged through a comprehensive coupling comparison. The results show that Tianjin will be in a state of relative water shortage in 2025 and 2035. Apart from making full use of local water resources and deeply tapping the water-saving potential and increasing the amount of water diversion from both the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the Luan River Diversion Project, Tianjin should actively strive for more allocation amount from a new source, the second phase of the East Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.