中国水利

海河流域战略地位突出，承载多项重大国家战略，其自然条件特殊且受多重强干扰影响剧烈，在全球气候变化背景下，近年来极端洪涝灾害频发，传统洪水预报调度模式已无法满足精准防控需求。聚焦强干扰条件下降水预报精细度不足、洪水预报精准度与预见期难统一、预报调度智能化与效率难协同三大核心难题，遵循“问题导向—需求牵引—技术突破—应用至上”路线，构建多范式洪水预报调度体系。针对模式降水预报空间尺度不一、时间尺度不连续，落区预报不确定性大、精细化程度不高的问题，研发了符合海河流域特征的无缝隙降水预报技术体系，突破了临近降水预报外推准确率低和时效短的瓶颈，解决了短时降水预报时空分辨率低、短中期降雨强度和落区预报不确定的难题。针对流域自然、社会多元要素对洪水产汇流演进干扰剧烈，预报调度模型适配性差、精准度不高、调度时效短的难题，提出了强干扰条件下多范式洪水预报调度的矩阵式“海河模型”，将流域重要节点洪水预报精度由70%提升至85%以上。针对水利工程群动态智慧调控难度高，决策支持系统性、时效性不强的难题，研发了海河流域防洪智慧决策平台，实现了流域防洪工程安全运行和优化调度的快速智能化决策，解决了预报调度模型“多参数、大变量、时效低”的难题，推动防洪决策效率由“小时级”提升至“分钟级”。研究成果在2021年漳卫河夏秋连汛、海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水、海河“25·7”区域性大洪水防御中实战成效明显，为流域防洪减灾提供关键技术支撑与理论参考。

The Haihe River basin occupies a strategically prominent position, underpinning multiple major national strategies. Characterized by distinctive natural conditions and subjected to intensive disturbances from multiple sources, and against the backdrop of global climate change, the basin has experienced frequent extreme flood disasters in recent years. Traditional flood forecasting and operation methods can no longer meet the requirements of precise flood prevention and control. This study focuses on three core challenges under strong disturbance conditions: insuffcient precision in precipitation forecasting, diffculty in unifying the accuracy and lead time of flood forecasting, and poor synergy between intelligence and effciency in forecasting and operation. Following the roadmap of “problem orientation—demand traction—technological breakthrough—application priority”, a multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation system is constructed. To address the issues of inconsistent spatial scales and discontinuous temporal scales in model-based precipitation forecasts, as well as the large uncertainty and insuffcient refnement in rainfall location forecasting, a seamless precipitation forecasting technology system tailored to the characteristics of the Haihe River basin was developed. This system breaks through the bottlenecks of low extrapolation accuracy and short effective duration in nowcasting, and overcomes the challenges of low spatiotemporal resolution in short term precipitation forecasting and large uncertainties in rainfall intensity and location forecasting for short and medium term periods. To tackle the problems of severe disturbances from diverse natural and social factors on flood runoff generation, concentration and routing, as well as the poor adaptability, low accuracy and short operation timeliness of conventional forecasting and operation models, This study proposes the matrix based “Haihe Model” for multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation under strong disturbances, which raises the flood forecasting accuracy at key nodes in the basin from 70% to over 85%. To overcome the diffculties in dynamic and intelligent regulation of water conservancy project groups and the insuffcient systematicness and timeliness of decision support, an intelligent flood control decision making platform for the Haihe River basin was developed. It enables rapid and intelligent decision making for the safe operation and optimal scheduling of flood control projects, addresses the challenges of “multiple parameters, large variables, and low effciency” in forecasting and operation models, and enhances flood control decision making effciency from the hour level to the minute level. The research results have demonstrated notable effectiveness in practical flood defense operations, including the consecutive summer autumn floods of the Zhangwei River in 2021, the “23·7” catastrophic flood in the Haihe River basin, and the “25·7” regional major flood in the Haihe River basin, providing critical technical support and theoretical references for basin wide flood disaster mitigation.