中国水利

围绕现代化雨水情监测预报体系建设应用，简要总结我国雨水情监测预报“三道防线”建设情况与技术进展，介绍中央、流域、省级层面推进雨水情监测预报“三道防线”耦合贯通建设应用的典型案例。针对当前存在的监测与预报耦合贯通不够、硬件与软件技术发展不平衡等问题，研究提出雨水情监测预报“三道防线”耦合贯通建设应用中需要把握数据融合与共享、模型耦合与协同、监测与预报贯通、不确定性与风险管理、技术支撑与智能化、预警联动与响应机制等关键点，探索建立由监测感知、模型预报、预警响应、基础支撑技术构成的雨水情监测预报“三道防线”耦合贯通技术体系与“天空地水工”一体化监测预报业务模式，为加快构建现代化雨水情监测预报体系提供决策参考，为推动水利高质量发展、保障我国水安全提供有力的水文支撑。

Focusing on the construction application of a modern rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting system, this paper briefly summarizes the construction status and technical advancements of China's “three lines of defense” for rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting. It introduces typical cases at the central government, basin, and provincial levels to promote the coupling and integration of these “three lines of defense”. Aiming at current issues such as insufficient coupling and integration between monitoring and forecasting, and unbalanced development of hardware and software technologies, the paper identifies key points to address in the coupling and integration of the “three lines of defense”, including data fusion and sharing,model coupling and collaboration, integration of monitoring and forecasting, uncertainty and risk management,technical support and intelligence, and early warning linkage and response mechanisms. It explores the establishment of a technical system for coupling and integrating the “three lines of defense” composed of monitoring and sensing, model forecasting, early warning response, and basic support technologies, as well as an integrated monitoring and forecasting business model of “space-sky-ground-water-engineering” providing decision-making references for accelerating the construction of a modern rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting system and strong hydrological support for promoting high-quality water conservancy development and ensuring China's water security.