中国水利

丹江口水利枢纽是汉江流域综合开发治理关键性水利工程，也是南水北调中线工程水源地，面临的防洪和供水任务矛盾突出，对水文水资源预报与调度要求很高。系统总结了南水北调中线工程通水以来汉江流域水文水资源预测预报技术进步：在雨水情监测预报“三道防线”建设方面，第一道防线加强雷达共享监测、构建雷达预警平台、开展多模式动态集成预报，第二道防线实现洪水预报体系全覆盖、构建分布式水文模拟体系、推动智能预报技术方法革新、建立水文预报新方法矩阵，第三道防线深化流域基础规律变化认知、探索水库调度规则智能推理技术、开发自主知识产权CJH水动力学模型、研发实时防洪逆向计算工具；在水资源预测与洪水资源利用方面，基于多元驱动模型方法提升中长期来水量预测水平，积极开展丹江口水库汛期运行水位动态控制研究与实践；在平台建设方面，推动大数据信息平台建设，打造CJH水利专业模型市场，构建汉江流域预报调度系统。介绍了10年来在南水北调中线工程水源区的实时防洪与供水调度服务支撑成效，展望了中长期预报调度、水库群联合调度等提升方向。

The Danjiangkou Multi-purpose Dam Project plays a key role for integrated development and management of the Han River Basin. As the water source of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the Danjiangkou faces great challenges to control flood and supply water, due to the high requirement of hydrological and water resources forecasting and scheduling. Introductions are made on technical progress and application in the Han River Basin since the operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. In terms of the construction of “three defense lines” for rainwater monitoring and forecasting, the first line is to strengthen radar shared monitoring, build a radar warning platform, and conduct multi-mode dynamic integrated forecasting; the second is to achieve full coverage of flood forecasting system, create a distributed hydrological simulation system, boost innovation of intelligent forecasting methodologies and establish a new method matrix for hydrological forecasting; the third is to understand changing of laws, develope intelligent reasoning technology for reservoir scheduling, independent intellectual property CJH hydrodynamic models, and real-time flood control reverse calculation tools. In terms of prediction and flood resource utilization, based on multi-dimensional driving model method, it aims to improve medium and long term water volume prediction, and dynamic control and operation of water level of the Danjiangkou Reservoir during the flood season. In terms of platform construction, it is planned to build big data information platforms, a CJH professional model market, and a forecast and dispatch system for the basin. Discussions are also made on the supporting role of real-time flood control and water supply scheduling in the water source area over the past 10 years and future prospect of enhancing the level of medium and long term forecasting and scheduling, and joint scheduling of reservoir groups.