中国水利

受全球气候变化等影响，洪水灾害的突发性、极端性、反常性、不确定性日益凸显，防洪安全保障形势日趋严峻复杂，亟须提升防洪安全体系能力，在更高水平上保障我国水安全。在系统分析变化环境下我国防洪安全面临的新挑战、新要求、新变化、新问题的基础上，探讨了蓄滞泄、人地水、点线面、守和弃、灾和利、洪和涝等防洪安全体系能力建设的重大关系内涵，提出了“十五五”时期提升我国防洪安全体系能力的思路与对策。强调要加强空间统筹规划避免人为加大洪水风险，聚焦流域防洪短板弱项实施精准攻坚，加大资金投入确保防洪设施长期发挥效益，一体提升蓄泄能力和风险防控能力，推进我国防洪安全体系和能力现代化，以防洪体系的系统性、可靠性有效应对洪水灾害的突发性、不确定性，为新阶段有效应对洪水风险、提升水安全保障能力提供参考。

Influenced by global climate change, flood disasters are becoming increasingly sudden, extreme, abnormal, and uncertain, making the situation of flood control safety ever more severe and complex. It is therefore urgent to enhance the capacity of the flood control safety system to safeguard China's water security at a higher level. Based on a systematic analysis of the new challenges, requirements, changes, and problems faced under a changing environment, this study discusses the major relationships and connotations involved in building the capacity of the flood control safety system, including flood storage and discharge, the people-landwater relationship, point-line-surface coordination, defense and abandonment, disaster and benefit, and flood and waterlogging. It then proposes ideas and countermeasures for enhancing the capacity of the flood control safety system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Emphasis is placed on strengthening spatial planning to avoid artificially increasing flood risks, addressing weaknesses in basin flood control with targeted measures, increasing financial investment to ensure the long-term effectiveness of flood control facilities, improving both storage-discharge capacity and risk prevention-control capacity, and promoting the modernization of the flood control safety system and capacity. These measures aim to respond effectively to the suddenness and uncertainty of flood disasters through systematic and reliable approaches, providing a reference for managing flood risks and enhancing water security in the new stage.