中国水利

2023年9月8日—13日，受台风“海葵”影响，广东省漠阳江流域遭遇特大洪水，阳江市多个乡镇和街道受灾。基于收集的气象和水文数据，结合新安江模型和MIKE 11水动力学模型，对此次洪水的成因、演进过程及防洪体系短板进行深入分析，并提出相应改进措施与建议。研究结果表明，洪水演进中，大河水库的科学调度显著缓解了下游城区的防洪压力，将接近100年一遇的洪水削减至20年一遇，最大洪峰流量减少了21.4%。调查分析显示，流域现有防洪体系存在两方面问题，一是部分堤防标准较低，二是涝区排涝能力薄弱。针对上述问题，研究提出工程措施与非工程措施相结合的综合防洪策略。工程措施方面，建议尽快推进漠阳江出海口综合整治工程，优化堤防及排涝设施，建设骨干水库调控洪水；非工程措施方面，建议加强防洪预报调度系统建设，提升洪水预测与调度能力。

From September 8 to 13, 2023, catastrophic floods induced by Typhoon “Haikui” severely impacted the Moyang River basin in Guangdong Province, causing widespread damage in several towns and streets in Yangjiang City. Using collected meteorological and hydrological data, coupled with the Xin'anjiang model and MIKE 11hydrodynamic model, this study conducted an in-depth analysis of the flood's causes, evolution process, and weaknesses in the existing flood control system. Corresponding improvement measures and suggestions are proposed.The results reveal that during the flood routing process, the scientific operation of the Dahe Reservoir significantly mitigated downstream flood pressure, reducing what would have been a 100-year flood event to a 20-year flood event. The maximum peak flow was decreased by 21.4%. However, evaluations identified two primary issues in the basin's current flood control system: low-standard embankments in certain areas and inadequate drainage capacity in flood-prone regions. To address these issues, the study proposes an integrated flood control strategy combining structural and non-structural measures. For structural measures, it is recommended to accelerate the comprehensive improvement project at the Moyang River estuary, optimize embankments and drainage infrastructure, and construct key reservoirs for flood regulation. For non-structural measures, the emphasis should be on strengthening flood forecasting and scheduling systems to enhance prediction and regulation capabilities.