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中国是一个灌溉大国,21世纪中国粮食安全保障最可能的影响因素是水资源的不足。原有的研究常将粮食安全保障与灌溉需水之间的内在关系割裂开来。利用开发的CAPSIM-PODIUM模型为工具,以全国九大流域片为研究尺度,对2020年我国粮食需求、供给和灌溉需水进行了多方案预测分析。研究表明,2020年我国粮食(贸易粮,不包括大豆和红薯,后同)需求比2000年提高25%,但增加的粮食需求不会动摇我国粮食安全保障。
Abstract：China is large irrigation country, in the 21st Century lack of water resources will be the most possible influential factor to the safety of food in China. The old studies often ignore the interrelationship between food safety and water demand of irrigation, therefore the paper carries out a multi-optional prediction analysis to the food requirement, supply and irrigation demand of China in 2020, by applying model of CAPSIM-PODIUM and nine big river basins as study areas. It shows that food demand in 2020 (excluding soybean and sweet potato) will be 25% higher than that in the year of 2000, however the increase of food demand will not be restrained by food supply because of the increase of food security at that time.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:S274
引用信息:
[1]廖永松,黄季焜.21世纪我国粮食安全保障与灌溉需水预测[J].中国水利,2004(01):36-38+5.
基金信息:
国际水资源研究所(IWMI)“PODIUM模型在中国的应用与发展”项目的资助。
2004-01-12
2004-01-12