中国水利

加快构建雨水情监测预报“三道防线”和防洪“四预”体系，是推进数字孪生水利建设、提升水旱灾害防御能力的重要部署。针对“三道防线”与“四预”在实践中存在的数据壁垒、算据融合不足、预报调度衔接不畅等问题，梳理两者链式关系，提出耦合贯通关键技术体系。研究以气象卫星和测雨雷达、雨量站网、水文站网构成的“云中雨、落地雨、河中水”全链条感知体系为基础，提出“三道防线”协同组网与算据校正方法，构建多源降雨融合、多时空尺度洪水预报、递进式动态预警和“三链耦合”作业模式。研究围绕不同预见期洪水预报需求，形成雷达外推、数值预报和实测雨水情融合驱动机制。小尺度融合降雨可提升山洪和中小河流洪水短临预报能力，大中尺度融合降雨与水文监测可支撑江河洪水预报演进。以广东省广州市黄埔区数字孪生南岗河为案例，开展流域“三道防线”与防洪“四预”系统建设及应用。结果表明，该模式能有效增强中小河流洪水预报和调度应对能力，为数字孪生水利体系建设提供参考。

Accelerating the establishment of the “three defense lines” for rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting and the “forecast, early-warning, rehearsal and contingency planning”(“four pre”) system for flood control is important for advancing the development of digital twin water conservancy and enhancing the capacity for flood and drought disaster prevention. To solve problems including data barriers, insuffcient fusion of computational data, and poor connection between forecasting and operation scheduling in the practice of the “three defense lines” and “four pre”, this paper sorted out their chain relationship and proposed a key technical system for their coupling and integration. Based on the full-chain perception system of “precipitation in clouds, surface precipitation, and river runoff” composed of meteorological satellites, rain radars, rain gauge networks and hydrological station networks, this paper proposed collaborative networking and computational data correction methods for the “three defense lines”, and developed technologies including multi-source rainfall fusion, multi-temporal-spatial scale flood forecasting, progressive dynamic early warning, and a three-chain coupled operation mode. Focusing on flood forecasting demands for different forecast lead times, this paper established a driving mechanism integrating radar extrapolation, numerical weather forecasting and observed rainfall and water regime data. Small-scale fused rainfall data improves the short-term forecasting capacity of mountain floods and small & medium river floods, while medium and large-scale fused rainfall combined with hydrological monitoring can support the forecasting evolution of river floods. By taking the digital-twin Nangang River in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong as a case, this paper carried out the construction and application of the “three defense lines” and “four pre” for flood control in watersheds. The results show that the proposed mode can improve flood forecasting and scheduling capacity for small & medium rivers, and provide reference for the construction of digital twin water conservancy systems.